The Reinvestment Cliff: What Berkshire's Bond Engine Gives Back When Rates Fall cover

The Reinvestment Cliff: What Berkshire's Bond Engine Gives Back When Rates Fall

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Berkshire's ~$339 billion Treasury-bill pile turned into a BNSF-sized earnings engine when rates rose — and because Buffett and Abel keep it ultra-short, that engine reprices almost 1:1 with the front end. The reinvestment cliff is no longer hypothetical: insurance investment income already fell in 2025 and again in Q1 2026. We map the gearing, the roll mechanics, and why a shrinking bond engine is really a capital-allocation pressure gauge.